Settling the Kepa-Mendy debate
Full video breakdown of Chelsea's divisive goalkeepers, and thoughts on what the future beckons
Kepa Arrizabalaga runs his 7 year contract signed in 2018 because Sarri wanted a “ball playing goalkeeper” (Butland and especially Maignan were other possibly more reasonable targets, considering Chelsea needed midfielders and a striker at that time. Chelsea got married to Jorginho for the better and worse (in terms of tactical constraints), and ticked the bingo card with a washed-up Gonzalo Higuain.
Dissecting Kepa and Mendy’s goalkeeping
Putting the studs on the ball and stretching arms isn’t “ball playing ability”.
Nor is chipping up and under passes under no pressure (apart from the receiver’s perspective, getting absolutely clattered on the much-anticipated drop point).
In that regard, Edouard Mendy’s driven low mid-range passing fares much better (as exemplified by his contribution to Chelsea’s winning goal in the Champions League).
Kepa Arrizabalaga’s positioning to cover angles (ball-middle of goal) and quick footwork (jockeying) is excellent, he’s excellent at catching the ball.
His GK training curriculum has been excellent.
But the guy can’t jump, he generates no power to lift off the ground whatsoever.
It probably didn’t show up in the marmalade of numbers being sold at the club at the time (prehistoric eye test would have done the job, though).
Edouard Mendy’s positioning and slow footwork is much more imprecise, but his strength is phenomenal. This is the reason why he can go to ground extremely quickly and reach the ball far away even from a relatively poor starting position.
He tends to punch the ball more than Kepa, but he’s going for efficiency and not clean-ness.
Mendy's coaching curriculum has been uneven, but his base ability is much better.
This is not even a “one square, ball in the middle” situation.
So, who comes out on top?
Mendy is miles better as a goalkeeper because his strength and jumping reach largely overcomes his initial positioning “imperfections”.
Kepa on the other hand (1.86 smallest goalkeeper since Cudicini, wingspan data not available but his arms obviously don’t scrape the floor) will always come up short on every shot going away from him, because he can’t reach them.
As for aerial reading on crosses, Mendy is much better, much more front foot and more comfortable dealing with them.
Kepa’s combination of never having faced the frenzy of crosses until he joined Chelsea, not being particularly long and being unable to lift off the ground, unable to punch a football clear is just a bad mix put together.
Kepa was an ill-advised release clause activation signing based on garbage data modelling shortlisting (some of which the updates surprisingly gave a completely different outcome a couple of years later). He couldn’t jump back then, still can’t.
His 54% save percentage in 2019/20, whilst irrelevant as a metric, was the lowest recorded since 2006/2007.
Don’t need a Modern Scouting and Data Driven Recruitment 100% online course to conclude that letting in every other shot in is not great.
Stranded on massive wages, never going public about his situation and obviously hard working behind the scenes, it’s hard to blame Kepa for anything.
But let’s not pretend the moon is made of green cheese, he’s an average goalkeeper, unsuited to English football and he can only thank the experts that put him in that uncomfortable situation in the first place.
Fat contracts and extensions
Edouard Mendy’s contract situation is comparable to Mason Mount’s.
It’s not “just” about money, but taking into account Mendy’s reported 55k/week is a third of what Kepa is reported to making (150k/w), with contracts both ending in 2025, it’s easy to see why negociations are stalling. Mendy’s untimely injuries are the reason he’s out at the moment, and it’ll be interesting to see who gets back in the team especially after seeing (too much of) Kepa’s performances in the meantime
Mendy is entitled to ask for a remuneration level with his strong level of performance since he joined; the timing of his signature was an emergency, but his performances weren’t.
Chelsea is entitled to carefully consider what would mean a contract extension, Goalkeepers age differently, some GK’s form fall off a cliff (Cech probably had one season too many at Arsenal, whilst Van der Sar joined Manchester United at 35.)
However, an accountant’s perspective on Kepa and Mendy won’t turn Kepa into a better player; he’s still very average, with some spells and saves suggesting he’s in a good moment, and the same continuous shortcomings that won’t get Chelsea futher up forward.
Chelsea have to be careful about the state of the market as well, good young goalkeepers are in demand and there’s a bit of a shortage of quality tall, imposing ones.
What the future beckons
Top clubs coming last at the bowl because of poor contingency plans (a situation that they sometimes inherited) will probably have to pretend Robert Sanchez, Dean Henderson, Gavin Bazunu, Diogo Costa, Ilan Meslier (who range to frankly average, to not great at the moment) are good enough; and complain they concede 15 goals more than the season before despite a strong expectedbeforeafter xG whatever (whose model has been adjusted twice in the “going from: looking at a new GK, signing said GK, trying to figure out what’s wrong” timespan).
My suggestion would be to go after Alban Lafont (1999) before a Bayern Munich or else figures it out and gets 15 seasons out of him.
Or Pedrag Rajovic (1995), a #U20 World Cup and Golden Glove winner, now with Mallorca. And who had a comparable impact to Edouard Mendy’s in Stade de Reims’ “Fort Knox” defence in France in recent seasons.
Let’s see how 6ft4 (but is he) Gabriel “Gaga” Slonina (Chelsea recently signed from Chicago, MLS) develops.
And if Nathan Baxter (career record: soccerway) continues his journey climbing the English league pyramid, that should at least warrant him a smilar run in the first team as Dean Henderson had at Manchester United.
Got to love players nobody really saw coming, or everyone but a few forgets listing in squad plannings; that end up with a shout in the first team.
A Victor Moses.
Goalkeeping is very hard, and the standards are very high; because the decider is probably more about making the saves someone else can’t; instead of making all the ones most goalkeepers are able to.
The 1995 - 2004 age bracket talent pool isn’t packed with good goalkeepers (nor good forwards, what the fuck do they do in training in most places apart from rondos and 8v8 tap-tap games that could possibly explain it? - answer, not much indeed).
So Chelsea better show some forward thinking and not dwell and expect miracles, out of Mendy’s contract negociations, Kepa’s performances; to end up with paying over the odds for another “soles on the foot, can’t save a shot” goalkeeper like Robert Sanchez.