🌌Renato Veiga: How far is he?

Brightest signing of the constellation of recruits?

🌌Some notes on Renato Veiga 🤔

• ✨Developmental curve caveat, and questions

• ✨Telling apart false and true positives

• ✨Benchmarking when scaling up, and fool-proofing

Also, some notes on tall players’ developmental curve.

Yes he’s tall, can run around and can head, he can ping a long pass.

This newsletter isn’t a demolition, it’s just unusual (from a top club’s perspective) when a signing brings up more questions than answers the more you watch.

As a Brentford B, Peterborough United recruitment model (big club cast-offs, talents that slipped through the net) ; idiosyncratic players are common. These entries into professional football expand the professional talent pool, and must exist.

For Chelsea FC however, any transfer brings scrutiny. 14 million is a gamble, that’s also a third or half of a Ligue 1 club’s budget.

This is the equivalent of “put an apple beside things” to keep feet on the ground and not looking at the sky.

Is Strasbourg interested to spend 30% of their budget on a gamble from MLS or Swiss League?

Trying to find out how far is (Renato) Ve(i)ga from starting a Premier League game?

Hopefully less than 25 light-years (7.7 parsecs).

Yes, that’s 5 315 017 119 427 420 Ian Maatsen’s.

Five quintillion, three hundred fifteen quadrillion, seventeen trillion, one hundred nineteen billion, four hundred twenty-seven million, four hundred twenty (good reasons to keep Ian Maatsen, but oh well).

We’ll see if Renato Veiga is the brightest signing in the constellation of recruits made by Chelsea FC. Not so much by this newsletter that doesn’t aim to be comprehensive, just stumbling over the examples that jumped up from the initial sample of watching.

And asking the (open) questions about how it can go from there, with elements of answer, benchmark and “processes”.

No point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do

🌌 DEVELOPMENTAL CURVE CAVEAT AND QUESTIONS

✨in 20' of watching on WyScout, all I've seen of Veiga is lunging into tackles

On the touchline, or wrong side from the centre circle

That’s a player that would be called “rash” in England, and would probably stop taclking in PL (or play Championship football after making his debut), that half of the “tackle” reel sees him arguing about refs after crunching tackles is difficult to overlook.

chasing his first touch, to concede a foul

mis timing challenges on the counter, which is the one situatuon where you don’t want your base midfielder to go through the motions.

trying to spin in small spaces and turning it over.

Easily wrong side of his man, as CB, LB or CM.

On the second frame, the most important thing is to get goal side asap, without tangling legs. Half a yard of hesitiaton means the goal is open for a cutback

The way Veiga moves as LCB really screams “midfielder out of position”, more than “central defender in midfield”.

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Doesn't seem unathletic to repeat runs, but only average to turn and change direction (for his height). Ball turned over, quick transition and Veiga (as LB) needs to close down.

His position isn’t ideal (he’s exposed with no cover), but still in line between his opponent and the goal (he can therefore close down in front)

Zooming in, Veiga lands the left foot and decides to change direction at the same time.

Which forces him to have “square” steps (horizontal)

And having to cross over the legs (to get the right in front to change direction).

Ideally: the right leg lands and blocks, and the cutting motion is done with the left foot (under the centre of gravity - basically the chest) pointing towards where he wants to go next

One half a yard wasted with average footwork, means crunching tackle and foul.

The point with Veiga is not that he’s terrible, do that to (try to) catch a train and you’re falling over on the platform spilling your bags. Kai Havertz or Benoît Badiashile are some of the most impressive Chelsea players in recent years for changing direction at speed.

Renato Veiga is simply average at it by the looks of it, not terrible, nowhere near “wow, that’s a gem in hiding in Swiss league”. There’s some work to do sand his game down.

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More roadrunning

These exercises are useful to an extent, you're not changing players' running mechanics in a finger snap, but some players are more efficient than others when "cutting" (changing direction) and you can certainly make them aware of the footwork

Tosin and Mudryk's cutting is neat, land the foot near the pole, open the other foot to point where they want to go Keep the shoulders over the feet to not lose balance Gilchrist and Andrey are not as efficient, as their planted leg gets across. Harder to open up in another direction, they have to get around themselves to go back in straight line.

see also

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The decision making in the box (and outside of it) sounds, at best, rash, and at worst: scruffy. “That crunching tackle will finally get people on side” . Football’s hard, making an impression on trial is hard, and this is the type of play players ultimately revert to.

He's got a half decent long passing range that does not always connect.

Fine, king of the park, centre circle with no pressure. That’s not narrowing down the pool very much, as far as professioanl footballers are involved.

Won’t dwell on this, there’s probably videos. Actually, his entire “highlight reel” is long range passing, thrown down the channel from exotic post codes on the pitch.

Wins the odd header.

✨That being said, players have different progression curves. I don't have enough data points to know how hard Veiga works and how much he can work on things like crossing. Taller players peak later, he's 20, let's see.

There's a potential upside there.

✨Early Branislav Ivanovic or Antonee Robinson did not look like Premier League standard footballers, because they were tall and clumsy as hell especially to receive and find solutions in small spaces.

Q: Do taller players peak later?

There's no general rule but usually there's two parameters:

1️⃣growth spurt, either at 12-14, or later (Dewsbury Hall) either way, the "centre of balance" jumps up a few inches and most of the coordination and agility parameters need to be readjusted accordingly. Players run funny between U12-U18.

That's why it’s tremendously important to have bespoke coaching syllabus and not village Guardiola's with not a single care for how players develop physically but also mentally.

Make sure they can run and change direction, and make decisions.

Yes, sure, Renato Veiga shows off his use of verbal and non-verbal cues being consistent and strategic. He frequently raises his hand or waves to indicate his desire for possession when he is near a teammate with the ball, demonstrating his awareness and willingness to be involved in play.

He sure checks his shoulder, seemingly tricked because doesn’t feel he’s being marked (why would he be as a 6 dropping off between the CBs back to goal in big year 2023) - but oh hey he did check the shoulder as taught. Only to give away a goal.

“Checking the shoulder” doesn’t mean “decision making”, it’s a tool for it

“I can cross the road before the truck - no I couldn’t”

Perception action needs reinforcing with positive / negative feedback to create long lasting neuronal connections, ideally when players find their own solutions.

Absolving players of blame when they continuously turn it over in training (trust the process), then bash them when they (inevitably) do in games (when it counts) isn’t player development (the players didn’t respect the plan). We see you

This goal is the kind of shit that has your club chairman pull you over on the tarmac and assert in no uncertain terms that he’s not throwing a 15k€ bill down the shithole for hotel / plane / bus to see bullshit like on the first kick of the game.

This obnoxious trap of 80% possession closed loop sole on the ball challenge too many academies fall into. Having transitions is healthy, it puts players in problem solving situations. Don’t mitigate it, otherwise players will find it hard on a senior pitch where the levels command a degree of chaos that doesn’t exist in Academy ball.

Who gets a kick from that kind of bullshit? Will Lankshear, but certainly not Renato Veiga, told to pack up at the end of the season, released. This is harming players’ prospects to get into senior football, only to inflate Academy coach’s ego.

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Another example, how to waste an entire season of a player development.

Baleba was carving through Ligue 1 defences (who notably keep 7 behind the ball and commit 3 at best in attack) with receptions on the turn and carries.

Was asked to pass the ball back all season for Brighton, stunting his development.

That’s why De Zerbi was send packing, and not Baleba.

“tactics” are only looked at when it wins, when it doesn’t you better make your players look good.

Forcing players into shit circuits that get picked up by fanalysts on social media (therefore will be by players and analysts) usually always ends up the same way.

“the player made a mistake” when it gets found out whilst doing nothing that warranted him a 30 million record transfer to Brighton in the first place.

What a way to protect his own players from De Zerbi, it’s unfortunate it’s not Mason Greenwood this time. Good riddance.

2️⃣is that taller players will be relied on duels under pressure, and as defenders or strikers they need to refine and develop their gamesmanship before during and after duels to create their own space. Use their arms, plant a foot to have the strongest base possible, possibly pull shirts.

Veiga receives a dreadful underhit pass, but his shielding isn’t good enough (no use of the left arm to keep the opponent at distance).

Put the chest off balance (push the shirt away to move the centre of balance off the “cone”) so that it forces the player to tackle

Gets dispossessed, it’s a counter

More seasoned midfielder either deals with it first time (down the channel), sprints, gets his arse in between to absorb contact then shift it when the player bounces off him. Other “problem solving” skills are useful.

For midfielders, output is important but the bar might be lower. Heading and scrapping second balls is like any job, can you count to 10 and use basic logic. This (should be) a low rated skill (in terms of how frequent it is as an ability for a professional player).

Looking at it differently, we often say players play at their scale: smaller in small spaces, taller in large spaces. Same for passing range (flag up players who are good in the other situation).

You see more long balls and crosses etc... by essence at senior level (get your coaching badges and change the world, Brother Teresa, otherwise get on with it).

And also: a tall guy is one guy you can stick a marking duty on set pieces (who tend to be a thing unless you want football without set pieces). Aka one less problem

Renato Veiga. Yes he's got the profile, are these skills valuable? Yes? How did we end up there praising the appointment of an accountant who can count on his fingers?

Back to 1️⃣

Your body fully stops growing at 21. But it's generally set between 17-21 bar a half inch or so. The "coordination" / balance and proprioception talk isn't relevant for your Chukwuemeka, Palmer etc... they're grown up sportsmen

As for 2️⃣. That might require training with senior players, and 5-15-30 senior games maybe to fail until you stop falling over with no foul called. Strikers need a sandbox, Ollie Watkins at Weston-super-Mare isn't any different.

One of the things I pinpointed in the Palmer thread in August was how he rubbed Azpilicueta with his arms and hands like the last chance saloon. This is a proven, guaranteed cue for players to scale up in a League / higher demand

Tall centre forwards will look good at 24-26, anything before that can only be evaluated by informed people (who know).

🦩Not casuals laughing at this drunk flamingo. It can take 3 to 4 senior seasons of failure to get over and finally dominate match ups. That's why these forwards are unplayable: Drogba, Mateta, Demba Ba, Giroud, Chris Wood. Just chesting out all the jibes and slander.

Every squad has a tall young midfielder on roster, supposedly. Chelsea had Loftus Cheek, moved on. Ugochukwu, bound to go on loan. Will Veiga fill the bill?

🌌TELLING APART FALSE AND TRUE POSITIVES

✨At first sight Renato Veiga looks a positive from a scouting standpoint, because he's tall, left footed and covers ground. Remains to be seen if he's a true positive or a false positive.

• True positive: Mbappé, Iniesta, Musiala, Hudson-Odoi

• False positive: Looks the part, ain’t it. Canada Dry player.

• False negative: Looks like a scrub, succeeds at everything he tries.

• True negative: scrub.

There’s João Félix, Wesley Fofana and Marc Cucurella to put in each of the last 3 categories, up to you to decide who belongs where.

Average player, in a lower tempo league.

We can’t see the Swiss League below, and looking rash in Swiss league doesn’t bode extremely well from a composure / decision making stand point.
And athletically, if Veiga requires to increase his engine (and keep freshness on week ends - that does not happen - otherwise he’d be identified as an outlier who can run a lot for very long, changing direction).

✨Being "tricked" in a bargain positive is a trap you expect football league clubs to fall into when they're in the trenches, injury crisis, no money.

If the guy is on the market, there's (always) a reason, and the more he looks like a good player, the more worried / cautious you must be.

There's always a wolf lurking (a catch).

“only in football…”

✨Veiga doesn't exactly stand out in Swiss league, nowhere near what Madueke or Mudryk showed in Holland or Ukraine in the first place. As of now they can't cut it in Premier League.

With Renato Veiga, a first glance via stats, or the eye test don’t make anything stand out nor answers questions raised by a collaborative brainstorming merging harmoniously “data” and “ball knolly”

✨Nemanja Matic also played in pre-season for Ancelotti, and albeit he looked a bit off the pace (especially on top of a diamond), he had a finesse and vision to pick a pass that stood out. Veiga isn't playing with timberlands, there's nice chips here and there. But he's not exactly ballerina feet for all that. 🩰

✨The more you watch / scout / coach players, the less you believe in miracles (after seeing the players).

There's always a big caveat of: what now when you are putting a player through a more demanding training regime.

Purple patch on trial is frequent (the YouTube reel effect), but being 6/10 five times a week + games is harder.

🌌SCALING UP THE LEVELS, AND FOOLPROOFING THE PROCESS

✨Basel had Salah, Andy Diouf, Zhegrova, Calafiori, Wouter Burger in recent years so they can definitely see a player. But also Moi El-Younoussi (Saints) who never scaled up (18 million).

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Andy Diouf? (8) Somehow not retained by Rennes and who to my big surprise moved to FC Basel (permanently), despite starring for France U19 at the Euros England won

Then signed by RC Lens to play Champions League football one year later.

As far as tall left footed CMs are involved. Diouf has better close control and passing range, however.

Andy Diouf in U19 National league, against an orange team in December 2019.

Also featuring Brandon Soppy who smashed the goalpost from 10 yards out, which is still shaking 5 years later. And Dembo Sylla, now Guinea International at FC Lorient.

Amusingly, Kadile and Wagui play professionaly for their day’s opponent

Noah Francoise is professional at Rennes so is Gasnier (Niort), and Matthis Abline is a solid Ligue 1 striker.

Couldn’t break the deadlock against a 11 then 10-man team, no substitutes, featuring 3 centre forwards whearing a T-shirt “I can only play central” one that had to throw the towel for knee pain after one hour. Effectively finishing 522.

Against a team of “fringe players” (no Camavinga, no Ugochukwu) before the Youth League game in Israel three days later.

A football pitch featuring as of 2024 9 professionals including 7 at Rennes.

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Andy Diouf volleying the ball over the top

Andy Diouf carrying it up whilst Brandon Soppy (just back from the U17 World Cup, would play on wheels all game, absolutely elecric) plays give and go, stretching his legs to tackle-pass.

The orange CB is a U17 midfielder, empowered to feature at 16 as CCB in a back three and didn’t concede an open play goal in over 300’ in 2019/2020 at U19 level.

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✨Walking a league doesn't mean you'll walk the PL. Not walking a league (Veiga hardly does), intuitively suggests one won't cut it in PL. Otherwise other clubs would have seen it; bar Chelsea. Not possible otherwise in the era of social media and fanalysts, that are bookmarked “moredanyoubelieve”

✨I put Lesley Ugochukwu in my list of 5 alternatives to Caicedo. Gigantic, quick, good in small and big spaces, can tackle and shoot.

Actual benchmarks to ruin PSG's 2020-21's title chase (1-1 at Rennes, two points missing for Pochettino to win the League). Did it 3x vs PSG in two years.

This season, he delivered 6.5/10 performances in the League Cup, at Bournemouth or Newcastle.

I broke down an entire play-by-play on my Sebstack.

✨For people who watch the U21s, I don't think Zak Sturge can cut it neither at CB or LB at Championship level but improved a lot the past year to win tackles.

Veiga is taller and wins more headers. But that's the same energy.

✨If I want to push it, Veiga looks reminiscent of Papy Djilobodji. Extremely idiosyncratic left footer, who had moments of genuine quality especially to ping long passes, but also questionable decision making - and fwiw was a good top half Ligue 1 centre back when he joined as panic buy in 2015.

✨I'm also intrigued how Sporting can release a player, who's now managed by his dad, if Sporting don't even think there was a buck to make.

That doesn't draw us to question the scouting / management of the player. Stakeholders have reasons to think they're making good decisions here.

But the safety net is definitely thinner.

✨A 20' minute skimming on WyScout raises more questions than it provides answers.

Usually you get a good / bad first impression (plenty of fish in the sea), then decide to work through more footage to eliminate your biais and consolidate your findings.

✨As part of the big picture, big agents / agencies always have player tiers. Good players, and players that get moved more or less around it as part of present/future deals as "sweeteners".

✨Smaller agencies can't really afford one misfit as an entry into a top club, otherwise they'll stay on read / be aired.

Dealing with an agency that manages a relative should frankly compel a club to rely on a third party independent valuation / opinion. That would be good practice, if you think "that player managed by his dad" really is the one.

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Mondo Victory is reported on Transfermarkt as being agency to manage the player’s interests, led by the player’s dad Nelson Veiga (former international).

Other clients include: players like Kiki Kouyaté (who played for Metz in after a spell at Sporting),

some more players released by Sporting / Porto trying to build their career all over the place, and players from Derby Académie from Mali

It’s all very fine, there’s a start to everything. But in terms of “who did you work with, who do you manage”, you expect a robust track record of players / clubs worked with that suggests it has a chance working out (if clubs continue keeping players / agents in the loop).

The agency’s digital inprint is, let’s say frugal. “Coming soon”

Also pictured on the signing photograph. Also mentioning a partnership with Ricardo Fonseca, another FIFA agent

Who’s Instagram profile reads “FIFA player agent” and “Sports Consultant”

and LinkedIn “Spots Business Consultant”

Who worked as a “Supervisor” at Chelsea FC during a Bachelor,

Who’s three people “recommending” the profile worked as steward / catering.

This is available in three clicks, and doesn’t suggest anything else that’s not written here.

Qualified people working with qualified people to build a transfer.

Two FIFA agents. Everything’s legit.

That one of them is the players’ dad, and the second worked at the Club (almost two decades ago) can and does happen in football.

It just raises scrutiny and expectations as for the player transfer to work out from a club’s perspective after spending 14 million (no add-ons).

✨I'm not saying Renato Veiga will be a shocking misfit.

He might turn out to be alright.

He might also turn out to be very good at 24-25 after a few more seasons with 30 starts, he could be a solid prospect in Ligue 1.

But Youssouf Fofana from Strasbourg albeit raised his level to playing a World Cup final, would still be “waiting” for his big move.

But I don't see how and where Veiga can move the needle immediately. Good option to have on the bench, to see out games possibly.

The boxes he ticks as "fitting the bill" seem to be more what he "could do", "looks like" and being a son of a former international, with subsequent network.

Professional sport is still a big house party, where some people "have the codes" and blend in especially if you speak several languages, but there's also a fair lot of resplendishing player CV and "intersting profiles" on the lose.

The equivalent of Diego Moreira, with an anonymous first season for the most part (after a dreadful first start vs Wimbledon and a loan in the stands in Lyon also exploring depth of mediocrity with 7 points in december)

Moreira finally found a run of form in the U21 playoffs - which you’d expect as a 20 year old attacker signed from Benfica.

Usually taking advantage of the panic, lack of contingency that litters football's decision making layers in clubs.

Ending up signing the player who speaks 4 languages would almost trick people that out of an extensive search gathering a dozen of outstanding candidates, the holistic / collaborative choice out of the final 5 pointed toward the one - at equal quality - that would integrate quicker into a multilingual squad. Also works with Moreira.

Marc Guéhi was sold for 20 million without a Premier League start for Chelsea, should’ve been sold for twice (or you know, kept at the club).

Football clubs like shiny new things, but surely clubs aren’t daft enough to sign for an excess of 15 million a player Sporting / Benfica deemed not good enough barely one year ago. Benfica got 120 million for João Félix and pull the generational “no room to discuss he’s not for sale” gimmick every year.

Sporting obviously deemed Veiga not good enough to keep to sell, and not good enough to keep around in order to show everyone exactly why they can’t.

The sweet spot of 12-15 games that shows enough but leaves a healthy uncertainty* about “informal unwritten guarantees”.

*: From the selling club’s accounting perspective.

“only in football…”

In terms of projection, sure, wild horses tacklers need to find their feet and get sent off a few times. But is Veiga expected to be the deputable cover in three positions? and develop his game?

Chelsea have Malo Gusto who can play both sides, Maatsen who can play both sides at Champions League standard, Axel Disasi who can play fullback and midfielder. Lesley Ugochukwu who can head and midfield. Andrey Santos who could probably play CB and fullback (not any less than Michael Essien he’s very similar to).

Chelsea have Josh-Kofi Acheampong and Ishe Samuels Smith (both 2006) who can play on the right half and left half of the defence respecively, excellent tacklers, good headers and well clear above 6ft1 tall.

Deciding to sign Renato Veiga surely stems from a good, collaborative, extensive process that takes into account what Chelsea already have in house.

Whilst you keep a crooked Chilwell on 200k a week, and the worst LB in the league.

And spending the 15 million from the 35-20 million Maatsen-Kellyman swap, to sign Veiga.

Some clips of Acheampong in the Tosin article

Mikel was “forced back” from 10 to 8 to 6,

A red card at reading, tough love (that’s not Mudryk’s token minutes every other game). Elite apprenticeship between Essien Ballack Lampard Makélélé Geremi.
The ultimate human full-time whistle, and trusted throroughly by every manager since.

If good, a player moved from fullback to midfield might call it quits early like Lassana Diarra for more gametime.

5ft8 Lassana Diarra winning a header above Mikel, Alan Smith and Kieran Richardson

But expeting Veiga to develop his game, mirroring Cucurella or Caicedo as for situations where to step in or not seems at best preposterous, and at worst, a complete waste of time.

There’s enough reasons to foresee Veiga being on the bench, getting minutes will be another story. That he might become a fairly decent player in the future (Hamza Choudhury at Leicester; rash, more often at fullback or CB3 than DM springs to mind doesn’t adress the pressing need for Chelsea to get back to CL football