NO STRASS IN THIS BURG: Habib DIALLO
The Senegalese Helicopter
A look at Habib Diallo, RC Strasbourg’s towering forward who scored 20 goals in Ligue 1 this season. Dude shows up in the top 10 goalscorers in Europe but it’s like nobody noticed.
How expectable was it, how good is he, and what perspectives beckons for him?
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There’ll be some fbref and smarterscout as well
And also some DataMB_ for the plotcharts
Hopefully, with a sensible use of data to back points up or give a picture, that can be taken away without making the whole thing crumbling over.
Habibou Mouhamadou '“Habib” Diallo was born in 1995, turned 28 in June.
185cm tall, (6ft1) and 174 pounds.
He’s also a Senegal interational and just scored a great volley vs Brazil
Habib Diallup there
Habib Diallo has scored 20 goals in Ligue 1 this season.
What’s his ballpark?
Dude wins aerials and scores goals, somewhere between Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Erling Haaland.
A quick look at the numbers suggest that goals was something that was about to come anyway after a 9 and 11 goal season in Ligue 1 (complementing Ludovic Ajorque who was the main man).
Diallo carries himself with a good attitude on the pitch and does most things you’d expect from a focal point 9.
Radar looks good at first glance. Progressive passing is low, as he’s the top fulcrum on the pitch so won’t be the one playing runners.
Heading, NPG and shot quality is strong.
His history at Ligue 2 level (on loan from Metz - after a transfer from Generation Foot, just like notable strikers such as Sadio Mané, Diafra Sakho, Papiss Cissé) suggests adapting to the level, then scoring ten goals, then scoring twenty goals.
Most of his goals from the 2018/19 season in Ligue 2 display a very high level of composure to finish off chances, definitely having fun slotting the ball past goalkeepers
Lots of things to like about this one, receiving a cross from the right:
Same pattern in Ligue 1 with 12, 9, 11 then 20 goals this season
Quick glance at the other columns show a consistent ability to put on target (in the low 40% and consistent conversion: from one goal every 6 to 7 shots, to one goal every five shots this season.
Headed Goals
The first thing about Diallo is the considerable amount of headed goals he scores, not just on crosses.
He’s got an ability to beat goalkeepers off second ball rebounds, and sometimes from outside the 6 yard box. Completely masters the art of the looping header above the goalkeeper.
Habib Diallo is joint 4th in Europe for headed goals
He’s obviously a menace due to his frame, timing and heading ability.
Strasbourg aren’t a positional play garbageball team, they’re more the fast break, get the ball in the box early type.
Which favours Diallo’s movement in a non crowded box.
He scored 17 npg despite 14.5 npxG.
Hothead? Or simply a team organising themseves so that their striker can convert his favourite type of chances with few defenders around him.
What am I saying. Manchester City scored a cutback in the Champions League final. Let’s everyone at any level only play cutbacks in crowded boxes to enhance our xG prospects and subsequent xCuses for being “unlucky” because the spreadsheet suggest we say so.
First time finishes
Diallo has a certain level of composure to finish chances off and analyse goalkeepers’ location to place the ball where they’re not.
But mostly on first time finishes, than when he needs to shift the ball and create space for himself
Darting at the near post
Habib Diallo does what any half decent 9 should be doing, which isn’t the case, and makes him even more valuable (due to the scarcity of the market) than he already is.
Finding folk keen to dart at the near post should be the easiest thing to do, rather than pile up half space operating shadow strikers who don’t have the first clue.
Volleying crosses
Diallo isn’t afraid to smash the ball first time on crosses and roof it
Long runs and 1v1s
That’s a proper Uber Eats long ball over the top, Diallo is keen to make these long runs. He’s not particularly quick but probably above average, especially for his size. Has the gamemanship to be a nuisance to make defenders run towards their goal all game long, from different starting locations (out to in, in to in)
Penalties
Diallo is Strasbourg’s penalty taker, he’s scored 17 out of the 21 he’s taken
Which gives him a 80% success rate which is more or less on par.
the penalty rate based on whatever dataset is around 75%
He’s beaten some familiar goalkeepers. Even now Leeds’ Ilan Meslier in 2019.
Battering ram
Winning 4.2 aerials / 90 is impressive, and the 44% success probably suggests that he competes *every* duel, or to provoke a favourable second ball; rather than a big time inability to figure out that he’s not efficient at it at 27 years of age.
Strasbourg don’t really beat around the bush, they play back to front football.
Side note on watching football on spreadsheets: this chaotic back to front, lump it, flick and random bounce only becomes random if teams don’t purposefully construct their team to take advantage of it.
That’s a “won header” by Diallo, but a “turnover” of possession (which we hinted at in the introduction - that’s your 67% passing accuracy just there)
Said “turnover” is actually giving the ball to an opposing midfielder, with very little enthusiasm as for what to do with it
Plays it back to the equally annoyed left back who gives it away down the line
Diarra intercepts the poor attempt to play out, that’s a high turnover and a chance to finally split open Will Still’s Stade de Reims (racking up clean sheets playing um… 3 DMs to screen a back 4).
If you don’t purposefully create turnover and chaos, there’s no way you get around Matusiwa or Munetsi
Diallo plays cat and mouse with the CBs by staying in between, puts himself just back onside
Diallo heads the ball to the far post and scores.
Header from outside the 6 yard box. Looping above the goalkeeper.
Another xG model bites the dust.
Defending corners
Didier is that you (or Tammy)
Run the channels
That’s what any half decent striker keen to move to England needs to be able to do, cause problems to defences by commiting centre backs outside of the width of the penalty spot to cause indecision (nerds call that “half spaces” but goalposts don’t move, only players do on the pitch)
Quick glance at SofaScore’s Heatmap suggest that his involvement (centred inside the box) might be more significant in some sort of inside channel for a right footer (to open up the pitch on his right foot) with little time spent digging up trenches at the corner flag (which makes sense considering how good he is when you put crosses inside the box)
If there’s 4 categories, this one is in the 3rd. Good but not dominantly great.
Bringing players into play
Whilst it doesn’t reflect on his (meagre) amount of assists, Diallo likes to bring team mates into play with thoughtful yet fairly unspectacular layoffs. Here’s a self-less layoff for a midfielder crashing the box
There’s some basic open play layoffs to bring people into play
So that he becomes the runner ahead of the carrier.
Workrate off the ball
Habib Diallo isn’t the most immobile, feet-in-cement type of lampost 9 waiting for service. He definitely pulls his weight off the ball, definitely with a degree of clumsiness at times, but does.
He’s often seen instructing team mates as to take care of the deep midfielders he’s leaving in his shadow when pressing CBs.
Here he is on top of Strasbourg’s 541, disrupting Balerdi with a little nudge.
Moments later, Strasbourg’s pressing trap snaps
Ball is launched between the CBs
Diallo makes sure he gets clipped by Balerdi who picks up the red card.
The same Balerdi, that Habib Diallo was constructively getting into just moments before then closing him down repeatedly. That one isn’t clumsy, that’s in-game intimidation here that any good striker (even Torres and Havertz) end up doing.
That’s how forwards build up their match up to force defenders into mistakes over 90 minutes (or 28 in case of Balerdi)
Diallo is also enthuasiastic at the idea of chasing backpasses, even if he couldn’t finish on this one against PSG
More:
Some nice bits of play on the video: some well timed passes, flicks.
Data Room
What does SmarterScout say?
Diallo’s aerial ability stands out, like his defending quantity off the ball.
Diallo’s footed finishing is not very high (39), which is a credit to Strasbourg for maximising opportunities to score first time finishes.
Crowded boxes, or complex finishes requiring to shift the ball and adjust might be a stretch to Diallo. But he still scored 20 Ligue 1 goals which isn’t nothing!
A glance at the style ratings suggest that he might be reliable to deliver goals if you feed him inside the box, but possibly more in the air.
Diallo on more complex types of finishes
Takeaway
Habib Diallo seems to get into the transfer picture at the right age, 27, off the back of a 20 goal season in Ligue 1.
That’ll draw interest from clubs keen to get an experienced striker, who’s not 21 on the back of his first good season; nor a January-born 29 year old on whom they’d be afraid to spend over 20 million on because what if he gets old.
Would he be Premier League calible type of striker? I’m not absolutely sure, being the playground bully in Uber Eats doesn’t always translate excellently well in the Premier League.
Marouane Chamakh was definitely “the guy” especially in the air for headed goals, Olivier Giroud (who shares the same pattern of scoring 10 then 20 goals) was also one of Ligue 1’s big men.
However, Giroud had a finesse to flick the ball on that we might not see with Diallo. And of course Chamakh was still expected to lay the ball back in the six yard box in Premier League and did wither after 6 months. Palace, Pulis and WBA also tried to give him another chance which didn’t necessarily work out.
For what it’s worth, Diallo is quicker and more athletic than Chamakh.
At first glance, there’d be room to improve his strength to hold off challenges better.
Not everyone can do what Michael Antonio does, and if you’re playing for Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and other West Hams (or Fulham), this is hardly about philosophy but the ecological mandatory requirement to have any chance of surviving.
Or you end up like Jean-Phillipe Mateta; looks like one, but eventually racks up a meagre 8 goals in over two seasons.
Ecological as: the game is the game, whatever idealists might want and decide from a squad building or playing style standpoint.
This, is a penalty anywhere in the world (and was obviously called)
However, Diallo doesn’t particularly uses his arms to make sure he’s not put off balance easily, whoch he should be doing at any point (with his right)
Auxerre’s Touré is 2m06 (6ft7 or 6ft8)
Diallo isn’t small. The other dude is just massive. Not pushing the defender wth his right palm (or angled elbow…) allows Touré to lock his arm, which is still not a foul (bur considerably drags Diallo above the vertical from the ball)
This is where the penalty gets called because the grab is too obvious this time, and Diallo is just startint to retaliate
Just too easy to be catched, albeit the defending is really clumsy.
But until that point, that wasn’t a pen.
And Premier League crowds and refs would just tell him to stand his ground
This isn’t to say that doing what Diallo does isn’t enough to get a pen (which he got), but sometimes some less blatant fouls (before the grab) wouldn’t be called in England; and the striker would still be expected to make a decent effort on goal.
That being said, let’s say a big club wants a “cheap” 20 million-ish transfer to fill a gap as a rotation option, because their promising strikers aren’t ready yet.
Say Armando Broja or David Datro Fofana (granted they’ll be good enough to start one day, which I’m not completely sold on).
But without commiting stupid money on a player that wouldn’t be first choice.
But allowing to send young strikers on loan, and rely on someone who’d be experienced enough to contribute from the bench and adapt to a new environment.
For what it’s worth, Taiwo Awonyi would look more PL suited and proven.
Same for Dominic Calvert Lewin
But because Forest know it, they could raise the stakes to stupid money levels (that - welcome reminder - doesn’t turn players better for all that).
Rennes or Lille were rumoured to be in for Diallo, at something like 20 million.
Now Chelsea have bought stakes in Strasbourg, and their financial pull becomes something else; Strasbourg wouldn’t be enthusiastic at the prospect of letting their marksman leave for who might become their challengers for European places (Rennes, Lille, Nice etc…)
What I say is:
I don’t think Chelsea should have Diallo absolute top of the list, but he shouldn’t be too far behind for a stopgap option to send players that need a loan and do a good job as rotation striker. I can see him being more or less close to his ceiling, if only bulking up a tad more to absorb impact better.
But put the ball in the air in the 6 yard box and he wilbedere. he willbedere
